Yeah - even if that Dr. Brett guy was right, that -.32% works out to be about 30 cents or so per share on the SPY. For my position size, I'm going to need a little more than that if I'm going to get my "calves done" without asking Vince for the money.
On this "green shoot" / "no green shoot" debate - I have been going "old school" and looking at stuff like the railroads and the other transports. There can be debates about the "true" strength of the financials with all of the govt. intervention and etc. But I don't think the railroads can fake it too much, if at all.
For the record, I am neither a green shoot advocate nor a green shoot dissenter. I just trying to work it like "Jack Friday."
And if Dennis Kneale turns out to be right about the economy, I'll be happy to present him with the 2009 "Buster Douglas Award."
Adam
· 5 months ago
lmao, will second that.
As to Green Shoots, truly all that matters is whether the market thinks that's right. Right now it does, so I guess have to respect that.
N N
· 5 months ago
Perhaps there will be some discussion in your up-coming book but in case it hasn't I was curious if you've ever come across more general systematic methods or rule based methods of forecasting volatility?
It seems from your posts your a mixture of reversion and discretion with a bias for short vol. In your experience do things like GARCH forecasting, Neural Nets, etc, etc. work in practical trading??
Procol
· 5 months ago
The green shoots have been rammed up the ......... of the shorts.
As it should be.
Apparently the VIX is insensitive to the slow (relative) grind up. Since you have to play a direction to cash (UP) thats not volatility. I guess the market could double and the VIX could drop to 15
Adam
· 5 months ago
Are shorts so evil and longs so pure?
Procol
· 5 months ago
No not evil. But if I had to wish for a winner I think the longs present a better outcome for all.
And most of the shorts are self righteous 'we know the truth and you don't" types. You know who I mean.
And they NEVER admit to being wrong. No matter how high, doomsday is always coming so why fess up.
Hey, they may be right in the long run, but meanwhile, the margin clerks are quite busy.
Adam
· 5 months ago
better outcome yes, but I don't know, I can find them annoying both sides. Truthfully what bothers me more is someone on either side bragging about his wonderful call 6 month's ago. Very value added.
Procol
· 5 months ago
true enough, but where are all the Goo roos that said we retest 666 before we go higher?
There were quite a few in that camp. Very little accountability in the Nostradamus dept.
too bad Lenny got blown out. This mkt was made for a one wayer like him
Adam
· 5 months ago
Jared at condoroptions would have a better answer on that. But don't forgot options vol. itself is a forecast.
All Comments
On this "green shoot" / "no green shoot" debate - I have been going "old school" and looking at stuff like the railroads and the other transports. There can be debates about the "true" strength of the financials with all of the govt. intervention and etc. But I don't think the railroads can fake it too much, if at all.
For the record, I am neither a green shoot advocate nor a green shoot dissenter. I just trying to work it like "Jack Friday."
And if Dennis Kneale turns out to be right about the economy, I'll be happy to present him with the 2009 "Buster Douglas Award."
As to Green Shoots, truly all that matters is whether the market thinks that's right. Right now it does, so I guess have to respect that.
It seems from your posts your a mixture of reversion and discretion with a bias for short vol. In your experience do things like GARCH forecasting, Neural Nets, etc, etc. work in practical trading??
As it should be.
Apparently the VIX is insensitive to the slow (relative) grind up. Since you have to play a direction to cash (UP) thats not volatility. I guess the market could double and the VIX could drop to 15
And most of the shorts are self righteous 'we know the truth and you don't" types. You know who I mean.
And they NEVER admit to being wrong. No matter how high, doomsday is always coming so why fess up.
Hey, they may be right in the long run, but meanwhile, the margin clerks are quite busy.
Truthfully what bothers me more is someone on either side bragging about his
wonderful call 6 month's ago. Very value added.
There were quite a few in that camp. Very little accountability in the Nostradamus dept.
too bad Lenny got blown out. This mkt was made for a one wayer like him
forgot options vol. itself is a forecast.